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India watching Clinton's visit to Bangladesh closely

Josy Joseph in New Delhi

The first ever visit by an American president to Bangladesh, an impoverished country with a strategic location, is being keenly watched by the Indian intelligence set-up.

Clinton arrived in Dhaka this morning an hour behind schedule because of heavy rain in the Bangladeshi capital. He was received by Prime Minister Hasina Wajed and greeted with a 21-gun salute.

Defence co-operation between the two countries forms part of the agenda for the president's talks with Prime Minister Wajed.

Reports say Washington is likely to express displeasure at the Bangladeshi decision to buy eight Russian MiG-29 fighter-interceptors, saying Dhaka does not need such sophisticated hardware. But in fact, it would be the American way of expressing displeasure over the growing military co-operation between Bangladesh and Russia.

The assessment of Indian intelligence agencies is that Bangladesh could be a "good base" for the Americans, as Pakistan is slowly drifting into Islamic militancy, the biggest threat to America today. "Whereas in Bangladesh, there is a moderate government and better democracy, and a greater desire for foreign investment and aid," a senior intelligence officer said.

Bangladesh has a strategic location: it has 580 kilometres of coast along the Bay of Bengal, a 4,000 kilometre border with India and 193 kilometres with Burma.

Bangladesh has assured New Delhi that it will not sign the Status of Force agreement with the US, but India remains worried. The agreement would give facilities such as blanket permission for US military aircraft to land in Bangladesh without prior intimation.

In 1988 India had opposed Bangladesh's decision, announced informally, to sign the SoF agreement. India believes such a step will result in the establishment of a de facto American defence base in the neighbourhood.

But America is anxious about China's growing presence in and plans for the Indian Ocean region, for which Burma acts as its corridor. China has been giving billions of dollars worth of arms and armaments to Burma for some time now. Besides, Beijing already has signal intelligence facilities in the ocean.

Despite initial differences and anti-American demonstrations, including the burning of the United States Information Service library in Rajshahi in December 1972, the Americans have managed to re-establish a cordial relationship with Dhaka. At present, the US is one of Bangladesh's closest friends and a major donor. The two countries are partners in 133 different accords.

Various American agencies already operate a large number of developmental projects in Bangladesh, including programmes to increase agricultural production, create new employment opportunities and reduce population growth.

The only noticeable difference between the two countries is over garment exports to America from Bangladesh.

"The Americans are looking to develop a close new ally in South Asia, due to Pakistan's uncertain democracy and close association with Islamic extremism. With China emerging as a key challenge to US, it is imperative that the US establish a base in South Asia," the intelligence officer said.

He pointed out that Pakistan is increasingly depending on China for its military needs and in its "efforts to take on India". And it is now confirmed that China is providing active assistance to Pakistan for nuclear and missile technology development.

Besides, it is possible that American corporations will show an interest in the oil and gas sector in Bangladesh. The biggest American investment till now has been a US company's recently announced project to build a $450 million container terminal in the southern port of Chittagong.

With favourable American investment and a productive relationship, it is possible that a new chapter in defence co-operation between Washington and Dhaka will begin, the intelligence officer said.

For now, the Americans reportedly favour Bangladesh selling a portion of its gas to India, which could give Dhaka money for infrastructure growth and poverty alleviation. But that could also be an attempt by the Americans to highlight the need for a new equation involving India, Bangladesh and the US.

Though the Americans have never spoken out against the Chinese presence in the Indian Ocean, it is clearly a threat to its strategic geopolitical interests that the US will not ignore.

On the Cocoa Island, once owned by India but now with Burma, the Chinese already have a signal intelligence facility. They have a similar facility on St Mathews Island. Both islands together give China the ability to monitor shipping in and around the Andaman and Nicobar Islands as also the missile tests conducted at India's Interim Test Range at Chandipore, Orissa.

There has been increased Chinese naval training activity in Burma and presence of Chinese personnel in Burmese naval bases. China is also building a road to Rangoon from its Yunan province. A large quantity of Chinese oil imports is also transported through Burma. All this makes the Indian Ocean region a key strategic area spot for China and the US.

CLINTON VISITS INDIA : The complete coverage

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