Beijing faces severe test with 2008 evaluation report

China's hopes of staging the Olympics for the first time in 2008 face a severe test on Tuesday when the IOC publishes an evaluation report on the five candidates in the race for the Games.

Beijing is regarded as the favourite to win the International Olympic Committee (IOC) vote on July 13 for the most prestigious sporting event on the planet ahead of Toronto, Paris, Osaka (Japan) and Istanbul.

But the IOC's Evaluation Commission chiefs, who have visited all five bidding cities in the last few months, are expected to give better marks to Paris and Toronto than to the Chinese in their report.

The commission's job is to focus on the technical aspects of a bid such as plans for sports facilities, transportation, accommodation and environmental protection.

Its detailed report is usually as thick as a small city's phone book. It requires close reading.

The commission does not usually rank the cities. The report will contain few blunt statements such as "must do better in transport" or "failing to concentrate on transport issues".

But IOC members who read between the lines will know the pecking order before they vote at a session of all the membership in Moscow.

The big question is whether the report plays a major role at all in a vote which is often influenced by politics inside and outside of the IOC.

VISITS BANNED

July will see the first vote on the venue of a Summer Games since IOC members were banned from visiting bidding cities after the Salt Lake City corruption scandal in 1998 and 1999.

Athens won the right to stage the next Summer Games in 2004 under different rules in 1997.

Ten members left the organisation after breaking rules on accepting gifts and favours from Salt Lake when it was successfully bidding for the 2002 Winter Games.

It is therefore possible that the report could play a bigger role than it has done in the past because of the lack of visits.

But as long as Beijing officials do not have to read serious criticisms when they get their hands on the report at the IOC's headquarters in Lausanne this week, they are still likely to go home as favourites.

The evaluation report is the IOC's equivalent of the old compulsory figures in skating. As long as the city does not fall on its face, it can afford to finish third in the report and still win the race by impressing the judges with other skills.

Beijing, which just lost out to Sydney in the race for the 2000 Games, has the disadvantage that it has not built many of the facilities for the Games in contrast to some of its rivals.

Paris chiefs, by contrast, were able to show commission members its impressive Stade de France stadium, which was built for soccer's 1998 World Cup.

RED TAPE

But the IOC knows that the Chinese are unlikely to get caught up in red tape if they win the right to stage the Games and will almost certainly make sure the facilities are ready in time for 2008.

Beijing has put together an impressive bid presented by fluent English-speaking officials and CD-roms. It uses the right Olympic buzz words describing itself as "Green Olympics" and "Hi-tech Olympics".

Some IOC observers believe that when it comes to the vote, politics may turn out to be more influential than technical factors.

Beijing holds a strong card as an attractive expanding commercial market for the blue chip sponsors who back the Games.

But China's human rights records could play a role.

The ghost of 1989 Tiananamen Square massacre helped to derail the bid for the 2000 Games. Chinese dissidents recently demonstrated in Lausanne, calling for the city to be refused the right to stage the Games.

Last month's spy-plane stand-off with the United States was also unwelcome publicity for the Chinese.

But the IOC has a chance to make a major political statement by handing the Games to China for the first time.

As one IOC influential IOC member said: "The real question is: "Does taking the Games to China help the process (of change) or does not taking the Games there help it?"