The proposed cess on education in the forthcoming Budget may not be able to push the total spend on the sector beyond the current level of 4 per cent of the GDP, according to sources in the human resources development ministry. 
 
The sources said the current budget of the ministry, at Rs 13,500 crore (Rs 135 billon), would need to be increased by at least Rs 1,000 crore (Rs 10 billion) to maintain pace with the 7-8 per cent GDP growth rate in the current fiscal. 
 
They said, in such an environment, it would take at least another couple of years for the Centre and states to raise the education spend to 6 per cent of the GDP, as announced in the Common Minimum Programme of the government. 
 
The sources also said given the stiff demand for higher education, user charges for higher education might have to wait till the next Budget, even though over the world, primary education is state-sponsored, while higher education does not enjoy subsidies. But the settlement with the IIMs have set a precedent for things to come. 
 
Officials said the proposed education cess would be directed "mainly" towards elementary education. The ministry has identified 250 priority districts, which will get the largest proportion of the cess. 
 
Officials said the districts had been identified on the basis of demographic patterns -- the population of scheduled castes, scheduled tribes and minorities in the district. 
 
The allocation for each district might increase from Rs 75 lakh (Rs 7.5 million) to nearly Rs 5 crore (Rs 50 million). Some districts have been identified as having abysmal female literacy rates -- as low as 10 per cent. The ministry has also asked for an additional Rs 3,000 crore (Rs 30 billion) for the mid-day meal scheme. The interim Budget had allocated Rs 1,675 crore (Rs 16.75 billion) for the scheme. 
 
The new estimate takes into account the cost of conversion, which includes costs of food and transport subsidies, in implementing the mid-day meal scheme. 
 
The ministry has taken into account providing mid-day meal scheme for children in drought-hit areas during summer vacations and extending the scheme to upper primary schools. At present, the scheme runs through ten months of the year during the school period. 
 
For the Sarva Siksha Abhiyan, Rs 3,057.08 crore (Rs 30.57 billion) had been allocated in the interim Budget. 
 
The Planning Commission would review all such demands and take a decision for the first supplementary of the Budget due in August, officials said.