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Summer preview makes Northerners fear the worst

Amberish K Diwanji in New Delhi

It's only March, but the way the sun beats down upon north India, you would think it's June. Summer no longer creeps in on the heels of a brief spring respite from the bitter winter, especially in the vast plains of the North.

This year, as one of the coldest winters ended (Delhi saw its lowest temperature of 11degrees Celsius since 1971, second lowest since 1950) along with February, temperatures soared to the mid- and late-30s. Worse, some towns in Orissa, scene of one of the worst heat waves in India last year that claimed over 1,000 lives, has already hit 40degrees Celsius!

Citizens are shuddering at what this portends when the 'actual' summer months -- May, June, July and August -- arrive. Last summer, Delhi experienced temperatures as high as 47degrees Celsius, more common in the burning Thar desert of Rajasthan. The great fear is that this year might see an encore, especially since Orissa is already very hot and the rest of India is not far behind.

The Indian Meteorological Department, New Delhi, is still compiling data to explain the sudden surge in temperatures that afflicted Orissa so badly last year. "We are still studying the reasons for the massive rise," said S R Kalsi, deputy director (meteorology).

Kalsi explained the heat wave in meteorological language. "As far as our studies indicate, last year's heat wave was caused by 'synoptic oscillations'," he said. Translated, it means certain weather abnormalities occurred in the atmosphere over Orissa. What Kalsi also meant was that the Orissa heat wave had nothing to do with the global warming phenomenon and the El Nino effect.

"The heat wave was caused by an anomalous flow pattern over Orissa that prevented the cool sea breeze from blowing over the state, resulting in temperatures shooting up. This is what happened last year and it occurred last week also, causing the mercury to shoot up. Such anomalies last often for seven to 15 days," he rationalised. "Now, this is just a local disturbance over a specific area. In fact, some time ago the same thing happened over Indore (in west Madhya Pradesh). These things happen."

But environmentalists are not so sure. They are inclined to believe that the heat wave is a part of global warming. "If it is not such a major worry, why is the government so wary of giving out data?" argued Anju Sharma, who works at the Centre for Science and Environment, a non-governmental organisation in Delhi.

Sharma is convinced there is more to the heat wave than just local factors. "Certainly one reason must be meteorological disturbances, but the question is whether the disturbances are being caused by the changing weather pattern worldwide," she said.

One factor that militates against the temperature rise being part of global warming is that it is rather localised, affecting primarily Orissa in eastern India. "Global warming is a global phenomenon. If it is happening, its effect will be felt across the length and breadth of India and South Asia," said Prof B B Garg of the Indian Institute of Technology, New Delhi.

Garg, however, agreed that there must be several reasons rather than just the single factor of disturbances for the heat wave, which need to be studied.

Sharma felt the entire issue of global warming is being sidelined, especially in the developing countries. "No one really knows what is happening, no one is taking the trouble to find out. All the research is being done in the developed countries. But since most of the effects are being first felt in the tropical developing countries, the rich nations are not bothered. And in the developing countries, no one is doing any serious research to explain what is happening and why," she lamented.

Kalsi insisted that work is going on. "We are doing a lot of research. In fact, we hope to have our results by mid-April to explain the weather patterns and whether there are actually any changes taking place," he said.

Sharma said there is an urgent need to seek out data, do research and have scientific debates on the subject. "At international climate change conventions, India tends to take a wishy-washy stand instead of seeking out the relevant facts. Out here, neither the ministry of environment and forests nor the ministry of external affairs is too concerned with global weather changes and the effect it will have on India."

Perhaps the met department's study, which is scheduled to come out in mid-April -- just when summer begins -- might have a more solid explanation for the sudden spurt in temperatures.

Sharma, who is convinced there is a bigger picture, said that unless the changing weather becomes a political question, few in India will notice it. "If tomorrow we point out that the rising global temperatures will destroy half of Bangladesh causing millions of refugees to flow into India, everyone will show concern. But till the time it continues as a heat wave claiming just a few hundred lives, our politicians are not interested and so no one cares," she pointed out.

Regardless of the debate, or more correctly the lack of it, the Orissa government is not taking any chances. It is preparing for another killer heat wave this year and has instructed its bureaucrats and local bodies on the dos and don'ts to keep the death toll low.

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